PADDOCKS PATENT (FRIDAY)

16:55 Sandown We have to wait until the last race at Sandown for the first of our three selections today. It may be the more obvious choice but Dagher from the Peter Chapple-Hyam heads the betting and it’s easy to see why. A very lightly raced horse with just three runs to its name it will have a lot of room to grow and progress. Any rustiness will have been shaken off in its seasonal reappearance when finishing a creditable fourth. The added advantage that comes with having Ryan Moore in the saddle is also another plus and is the choice for me here. Many are making a case for the Highclere owned Commodore and despite the horse probably having enough ability to win a race like this it’s marked level of inconsistency is too off putting. Dagher (WIN)

20:35 Chepstow A long wait until final two selections that both come just ten minutes apart. The first of which runs at Wales’s premier race course Chepstow. The favourite Wind In My Sails is a very short price. I understand that it was very close last time out on Sunday and running off the same mark it does have a brilliant chance but 6/4 in a maiden just isn’t value at all and looking through the other runners who hail from bigger yards there is definitely better options. The biggest danger to my selection is Clive Brittain’s My Mate. If the horse can transfer it’s all weather form onto turf then it should have a great chance. I am however plumping for a horse that hails from a yard that is starting to hit a bit of form. Charlie Hills yard are picking up the pace and they saddle Free To Love. A horse I backed last time out when finding five furlongs too short. It still ran a tad green that day but showed ability in patches throughout the race. I’m convinced it has enough to win and although this maiden looks pretty tough it’s ultra-consistent performances should put it in the mix for place money at least and 6/1 seems very generous. Free To Love (E/W if 9/2+)

20:45 Goodwood Very quickly we move from our second pick to our last. Goodwood has a decent evening card and our final selection comes in the last race of the meeting. Without seeming harsh and dismissive of the other runners I think it’d be fair to say it realistically looks to be a two horse race. If Henry Candy’s Flashy Diva can recapture its previous course form it would have a place chance but with only seven runners and therefore only two places you have to think it isn’t likely. As mentioned earlier it seems to be between the two most fancied horses. Mark Johnston has been bagging winners for most of the season and his entry Subversive has to be respected after a good second placed finish last time out at Ripon. That was on good to soft ground however and with the sun scheduled to beam down on the turf all day I think it’ll be much firmer. That being said however two wins on the all weather means it shouldn’t be too detrimental. One negative I have to point out though is that the horse has had six races already this year and had six as a two year old as well. That is a hell of a lot for such a young horse and you have to wonder how much it has left in terms of improvement. That sort of a tough campaign is a worry for such a young horse and is the reason I’m going for the current betting favourite. Richard Hannon will have his stable just coming to the boil in time for Royal Ascot and sends Francisco here. Unlike its main market rival the favourite has only stepped foot onto the race course three times and has never finished outside of the top four. It will improve on its seasonal debut and has a lot of scope to improve. Representing one of racings powerhouse yards with champion jockey Richard Hughes booked to ride then Francisco is going to take a lot to beat it, something I don’t think it’s rivals can do today. Francisco (WIN)

by Rory Paddock

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