We kick off todays action looking to emulate yesterdays 66% strike rate as we head over to Nottingham for their six furlong contest.
This sees a rematch of the first and second placed runners of a race run over course and distance not too long ago. On that day both Lexington Abbey and Greeb finished well clear of its rivals and I think that will be the case again today. From that race however both horses ran off the same mark where as today sees Greeb two pounds better off.
There was only half a length between them that day and I was mightily impressed with the Charles Hills runner. Unfortunately to my own detriment I followed the horse onto its next run where it was mightily disappointing finishing last of eight runners. The trainer has said the horse has been bouncing at home after that race and is mightily confident of finishing ahead of todays favourite.
Although I think Lexington Abbey is a worthy favourite I’m siding with the William Buick ridden Greeb and hope a turn in fortunes happens today.
For our second pick we head to flat racing HQ also known as Newmarket for another five runner race. As with the first race we covered this one looks another two horse race between Jeremy Noseda’s Mister Brightside and Roger Varian’s Musaaid.
The Dettori ridden, current favourite has been a model of consistency with two seconds and a win in just three starts. However unlike it’s main market rival it has had a fair amount of racing in its career and between the two I feel Musaaid must have more room for improvement. Its maiden win over the course and distance looks like decent form and with course conditions to suite I think Andrea Atzeni should be the one coming home in front.
Another large wait until our third and final selection sets off as we take in the last race on the card from Pontefract.
As with all the picks today they take place in small runner fields but unlike the other two I feel the majority of the entries here have some sort of chance.
At the head of the betting is Kevin Ryan’s Firgrove Bridge who won impressively at the end of last month. A seven pound rise does seem somewhat steep and I feel this may be a bit too much in what has been a long campaign for the horse despite its 100% strike rate at the course.
With three course and distance winners lining up Be Lucky, Orbit The Moon and Teetotal all have to be respected and of the opposition it’s Be Lucky that I fear the most. Trained pretty locally by Michael Easterby this five year old is only four pound higher than winning a similar course and distance race recently and has to be in the frame.
This being said though I am taking a bit of a chance with bottom weight and maiden Sweet Missi. As with Michael Easterby, Brian Ellison trains locally to the course and despite a disappointing seventh last time out ran a nice race on its seasonal reappearance. Clearly the trainer likes the horse enough to stick with it and it is more than interesting to note that current leader in the jockey standings Silvestre De Sousa stays late to ride this one. Although it’s a bit of a risk I think that it’s one worth taking on a three year old that I hope can improve.
Sweet Missi (WIN)
Listen to our latest podcast – Episode 16. We talk about The Irish Oaks and pick our best bets for tomorrow as well as answer your #RacingRants
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