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15:05 Southwell
The fibresand can throw up a ‘whose turn is it to win today’ type of card every day if it chooses too and today’s doesn’t look too dissimilar. The 3:05 ran over 7f may just have a squeak of value in it and with 4/1 bar the field there is certainly decent each way prices across the board.
Alpha Tauri is one of 6 course and distance winners in the field and comes here in patchy form but that doesn’t often make a huge amount of difference. I would be more interested in what he had done over the longer term and that would be good enough reason to have a look at him as an each proposition here. At 10 he may not be a spring chicken but he knows the score and another good run could see him have a decent chance.
Yet the biggest shout to me in terms of form and past experience is Red Unico for the Michael Appleby yard. Ben Curtis takes the ride and his defeat of Clockmaker by 7l the last day makes for good reading. A current 5/1 poke may be the best value on offer and he can at least run a place
Red Unico (E/W)
15:30 Ayr
This contest over 3 miles will be a decent stamina test for a couple of these stepped up in trip. Lochnell is the one that makes most appeal based on the weight factor and his run the last day. He beat Maggie Blue in heavy ground over course and distance and has a feather-weight 10st on his back. He will definitely get the trip and seems happy in a range of different grounds so at the prices looks good value.
Master Ruffit would be the danger on form but he is a significant hike in the weights in comparison to the selection and therefore you would have to be wary of that. He does have the benefit of having won in this class and also has much underrated Brian Hughes on board so expect a big run out of 2nd top weight here.
Lochnell (E/W if 9/2+)
16:05 Ayr
Castlelawn hasn’t won since 2013 but has run well twice this season up in Scotland both at this track and at Musselburgh. Both runs were in similar sort of ground and there may have been excuses when she was pulled up at Kelso in heavy ground (though she does act on it) back in December. The handicapper hasn’t quite caught up with the horse yet and if she continues to progress, and you put a line through the last run, then a very decent run is expected.
Bonzo Bing is dropped in trip here and is still progressive over hurdles. He ran a good race last time, though he was beaten by 20f in Newcastle. The winner of that race could be a very nice type. He’s happy on a range of different ground but may prefer a stiffer, stamina test in the mud to out run one or two of these, as his best form in Ireland was on bottomless ground.
Castlelawn (E/W if 9/2+)