13:35 Newbury
Hierarchy holds the strongest rating in the field with 108, which he achieved mainly due to his runner-up finish in the Group 2 Mill Reef over course and distance last season. He since went on to run with major credit at the Breeeders’Cup and raced a shade too keen on his seasonal debut at Ascot last month. He’s slightly more exposed than others in the field but is a proven group performer and must go well.
William Haggas has his string operating at a 34 strike rate so it's no surprise to see Tiber Flow top the market. The son of Carravagio lost his unbeaten record when just held in a £150,000 race at Newcastle and while he obviously holds leading claims, I think this trip may just catch him out.
Of the remainder, Ehraz is a promising sort but has been well-held in both starts in graded company, Cadamosto was fourth in the Norfolk last season and hails from Ballydoyle so enters calculations and Clive Cox’s three-year-old sprinters are on-fire, so Mohi can't be ruled out either.
HIERACHY (WIN)
written by Peter Keogh
13:50 Newmarket
Ottoman Fleet heads the market in this tricky affair for Charlie Appleby and James Doyle. His debut behind Natural World by just a neck was very promising and he’s a deserved favourite in this contest. Natural World is now rated 102 and a run anywhere near that sort of mark should see him go very close here and that’s without the potential for improvement. Conditions should be fine for him and it’s easy to see why he’s short odds.
Groundbreaker was very impressive on his turf debut, scurrying away to land the spoils there. The fourth in that race has disappointed since though and time will tell just how good that form line is.
Post Impressionist was also impressive on his last start, though again, he was entitled to win that race and this will be a much tougher test.
Zain Sarinda was a close third in this grade at Epsom and has the credentials to get involved here if backing that effort up but I’m going to side with Ottoman Fleet to get off the mark in style here in this listed event.
OTTOMAN FLEET (WIN)
written by Tom Bates
14:10 Newbury
This Group 3 contest looks ridiculously open and despite their only being the six runners a case could easily be made for any one of the field.
The outsider of the six Outbox has attracted market support from as big as double figure odds and isn't without a chance.
All of the runners have former course winning form and all bar one have claimed a victory within their last two outings.
The only way I'm going to come up with a selection here is by the power of deduction so first one for the chopping block is Ilaraab. His preference for soft ground is enough to let me cut him.
For the exact same reason and his love for uderfoot conditions Scope is also going to be avoided today despite being the highest rated horse of them all.
Without A Fight also falls by the way side because of his lacklustre performances in group races here in the UK. He may have gone close in a Group 2 at Meydan over the winter but back on UK soil he's been mediocre at this level for the most part and others look classier types.
The King Power owned Foxes Tales has a viable chance but it's hard to gauge how good the form of his seasonal return was when he finished 2nd in a three runner contest. He's probably going to come on for that performance but he's far from prolific and looks likely to find one or two too good this afternoon.
So I'm left with two to pick from in the form of the current favourite Eshaada and the outsider Outbox. Roger Varian's charge is lightly raced and was last seen when winning a Group 1 contest. That is by far the best form on offer and with a weight allowance it should also aid her chances. My only concern is the 210 day absence on the sidelines. If Varian has her fit and ready to fire then she'll easily be able to take this. I'm going to go with the Jim Crowley ridden four year old but don't discount Outbox who, to me looks the best of the rest.
ESHAADA (WIN)
written by Rory Paddock
14:25 Newmarket
Lir Speciale has progressed in all three races to date, beginning the season on the all-weather at Kempton and posted a couple of encouraging placed efforts, following up a solid second on debut in March with an agonising third when turned out eleven days later. Having battled and fought his way to the lead he was caught in the final strides, however the first four home have all won since and he made no mistake when switched to turf last time out, quickening clear for a facile victory under jockey Ray Dawson when last seen. The form looks solid and he also looks capable of further progression so he gets the vote for victory.
The main danger looks to be Haymaker who won well over seven furlongs here last time out, making all and showing enough speed to suggest he will handle the drop back in trip today. He has the added benefit of Harry Davies’ 7lbs claim and if getting an easy lead could prove tough to peg back with stamina assured.
Others to consider include I’m A Gambler who battled well for victory at Hamilton last time out but has to shoulder a 6lbs penalty today, Harry Three who has made the frame both times he has visited Newmarket and would have to be considered with Adam Kirby now returning in the saddle, although has been nudged up another couple of pounds by the handicapper, with a final mention to River Pride who arrives in good form but has done all her winning over further.
LIR SPECIALE (WIN)
written by Dean Kilbryde
14:45 Newbury
A thirteen strong field of three year olds take to the centre stage at Newbury in the third race on the card and it looks a very competitive affair.
Israr and Mr Big Stuff are currently vying for favouritism. Of the duo I've concerns over the fact that Richard Spencer's runner has failed to win in his four career starts to date and I'd be happy to take him on. Israr represents powerhouse connections and showed encouragement when third at 'Flat HQ' on hos three year old debut. That being said I feel there's others in the field that hold stronger claims.
On form alone I cannot look past Red Vineyard who I feel, if he were trained by a Top 10 trainer would potentially be half the price he currently is. He claimed a shock victory when finding his head in front at Sandown last time out. The form of that effort reads really well with the second going on to win next time out and had previously finished ahead of the aformentioned Mr Big Stuff. There's no doubt Tom Marquands mount will improve for his return run and his price could look silly come the off.
The man of the moment when it comes to jockeys has to be Ryan Moore with everything he's touching of late turning to gold. He teams up with trainer Mark Johnston to partner Luminous Light. The stable are starting to hit their stride with 10 winners from their last 48 runners. There's no doubt he'll need to improve on what he's achieved so far but he was only a length behind the winner last time out. He could be very dangerous considering both his rider and connections and may go much better than the bookies are predicting now making his handicap debut.
At much bigger odds I wouldn't readily discount any horse trained by Richard Hannon Jr who seems to have his horses hitting their stride of late.
RED VINEYARD (E/W)
LUMINOUS LIGHT (E/W)
written by Rory Paddock
15:00 Newmarket
Shine So Bright hasn't always appeared the most straight-forward though snapped a long losing sequence when readily seeing off the re-opposing Wizard D'Amour here last time, despite racing rather freely. The latter would have every chance of reversing that form at the weights though his front-running style may prove an issue here and of the pair, Shine So Bright makes most appeal.
Saleymm lost little when fining just one too strong in the Lincoln and he followed that up with a fair, yet slightly disappointing effort at Newbury last time. Still very lightly raced and with a striking pedigree, one suspects there is plenty more to come from him and this slight drop in trip looks almost sure to suit.
Quintillus failed to fire in Dubai last time but winners have come out of that race and he would have chances if judged on his best form. A buzzy type, much will depend on how he behaves during the prelims though respect should be afforded and he comes from a yard who have dominated at this course in recent times.
Bullace doesn't strike the eye as being well handicapped though he has gone well when fresh before and he does have a victory at the course, he could bounce back here though the yards form is off-putting and he is taken on.
San Isidro is very difficult to weigh up and he makes his UK debut today, should the market speak in his favour then he would have to be feared. The rest will need to show a good deal more than they have of late and so a chance is taken on Saleymm bouncing back to form over an ideal-looking type of trip.
SALEYMM (WIN)
written by Chris Connolly
15:20 Newbury
Real World was on the up last season, progressing through the disciplines to score a Group Two victory in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein, on Arc day, beating The Revenant by a short neck. He returned victorious in the Zabeel Mile at Meydan but was subsequently outclassed in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup. He might well benefit from the drop in trip but he will have to post a career best today as he has a bit find on Baaeed.
Mother Earth is a dual Group One winner and made her seasonal reappearence a winning one, when powering to victory at the Curragh in March. Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are in rather good form and she will have improved a lot for her four year-old debut. She’s an incredibly likeable mare who will surely give a good account of herself again, however, she might have her work cut out today.
Baaeed is undefeated in his career and finished last season with two Group One victories. He dismantled a high class field in the Prix du Moulin and then held off Palace Pier in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day. He’s done nothing wrong so far and the sky is the limit for him this season. It’ll be a major shock if he is defeated today.
BAAEED (WIN)
written by Kieran McHugh
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