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13:40 Cheltenham
The opening race on ITV from Cheltenham is a Grade 2 novices’ chase in which all the four contenders will fancy their chances. Sebastopol had been running some cracking races in defeat over hurdles but was outclassed by Mick Pastor in a match race on his only chase start so will need to find more this time around. Mick Pastor came up against Captain Tom Cat a week ago at Wincanton in which the latter prevailed and was good value for his winning margin as its likely he had more in the tank. He does however carry a 5lb penalty in this race because it was a Grade 2 race but I would not expect a reversal of the result from that Wincanton race.
Third Time Lucki is seemingly a very exciting gelding. He travelled with such fluency over course and distance in his only chase start and was exceptional at his fences that day. This will be a much bigger test of his credentials, but he does only carry a 3lb penalty for that victory. He is taken to score again here in fine style for the Skelton team with Captain Tom Cat as the main danger to him today.
THIRD TIME LUCKI (WIN)
written by Tom Bates
14:15 Cheltenham
The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes centre stage at Prestbury Park today and typically, this looks a terrifically tough and competitive heat to decipher. Betting favourites have a rank recent record, over the last decade not one market leader has managed to take home the prize and only three have managed to place. Protektorat did little wrong last term and signed off his Novice campaign with a bold display of jumping when winning a Grade One at Aintree. The form of that race really does catch the eye in the context of this race although he has been rather uneasy in the betting throughout the week and this is a proper test first time up with his welter burden.
Both Lalor and Simply The Betts make their yard debuts for Paul Nicholls and Lalor has attracted eye-catching market support over the last day or so. Without a win since landing a Novice Chase here in 2018, he is impossible to suggest with any degree of confidence despite his clear liking for the venue. Simply The Betts is progressive and he ran with credit when sixth in this last season. Off ever since that run, there are slight question marks as to how ready he will be though he has been dropped three pounds in the weights and his overall profile suggests there may well be further improvement to come.
Al Dancer travelled like the winner in this last season before tiring up the hill, his form well and truly hit the skids thereafter although he too has since changed yards and the betting has spoken in his favour.
Coole Cody is all heart and he refused to buckle when landing this contest last season, he ought to give his supporters a decent run for their money but this demands more off his mark. Nietzsche may have been laid out for this and he has some solid form to his name, given a pipe opener on the Flat last month he makes plenty of appeal for the places and respect is afforded. Zanza is frustrating and has a habit of belting one or two of the obstacles, his most recent effort was fairly decent however and a reproduction would give him a decent chance. Paint The Dream hails from a yard firing and he bolted up the last day, he would be as dangerous an outsider as any and warrants consideration.
The others have chances of sorts and are hard to rule out but a chance will be taken on Spiritofthegames, who finished an honourable second in this race last season off a four pounds higher mark. He has since had a wind operation and made a fairly pleasing return over hurdles nine days ago, currently trading at double figure odds, he appears likely to have this run to suit and may well reward the each way players under Bridget Andrews.
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (E/W)
written by Chris Connolly
14:50 Cheltenham
At the time of writing Proschema is favourite for this three-mile contest and on paper he brings the best form here. An impressive winner over two and a half miles here in April he was stepped up to three miles on his last outing where he was a very credible second in the Grade two hurdle at Wetherby. Although he seemed to stay ok there he has always been a strong traveler and I’m not convinced this stiff three miles is what he needs, he will find this a much stronger test than that at Wetherby. On that basis I’m prepared to look elsewhere today.
Dragon Bones has been well supported since betting opened, she was an eyecatcher when second last time out in a novice hurdle over course and distance. She would have to improve here but that’s likely. Third in that race was Onagatheringstorm who was well beaten there but has a big weight swing in his favour today. That was his first run for 161 days and he looked in need of the race and he can run much better here. This is his first run in a handicap and he’s fairly treated.
Ballymillsy also has form that ties in with Dragon Bones, they were neck and neck over the last at Worcester in April when Ballymillsy fell. Ballymillsy is worse off at the weights today but is guaranteed to stay and already has proved his well being with a handicap win this season. He may find this ground too fast at this trip today, however.
Kansas City Chiefs may be under achieving in the NFL but their equine namesake has a chance here. Although a twelve-year-old veteran these days he loves Cheltenham and won well here last time out. His rider that day rides again here but is very inexperienced for a race of this nature.
Sporting John is interesting back over hurdles and after having a wind operation but he is a bit of a enigma and has a couple of ways of running he is a threat of at his very best.
Proschema has the best form in the race, but three miles here is different to the same trip at Wetherby, I think he will prove better at shorter distances. Dragon Blood has attracted attention after a good run last time out, but I will go for the horse that was third that day Onagatheringstorm who is better off at the weights and will improve considerably for that outing. His shrewd trainer loves a Cheltenham winner.
ONAGATHERINGSTORM (E/W)
written by Steve Marriott
15:05 Lingfield
The first of two live races from Lingfield this Saturday sees the ITV camera’s take in a listed sprint contest that’s a qualifier for the All-Weather Championship.
Current market leader is the Ismail Mohammed trained Good Effort who took this race last season and is unbeaten in three starts here at Lingfield. He’s had a jet setting campaign and was last seen on US soil at Belmont Park. He finished dead last in a Group 2 that day but prior to that performance he claimed victory at Deauville in France. He’s been tried in group company for most of the season so a return to listed level should see him to better effect. As a horse with such a solid course record he deserves his place at the top of the market but with just one victory in his last eight starts (three of which he finished dead last in) he’s not the most consistent type and I’d rather look for an each way alternative.
The Irish are represented in the form of Harry’s Bar who claimed course and distance success here back in February 2020. He’s had a mixed bag of performance and with the interesting jockey booking of Tom Marquand he should make the frame.
Despite mentioning two former course winners already it is in fact another who has tasted success at Lingfield that I’m drawn to. Having never finished out of the first two at this venue and claiming a shock 20/1 success in a listed race here before Exalted Angel could be overlooked by oddsmakers.
Karl Burke’s charge has a much better all-weather record than he does on the turf and as such can be forgiven some of his poor performances on grass. A return to an artificial surface is bound to see marked improvement and the five-year-old shouldn’t be ignored.
Of the remainder the youngsters Bahrain Pride and Fovethousandtoone need to improve in order to feature and the return of The Last Lion after a mammoth 1876 day absence is a shock to say the least. Seeing the Group 1 winner, who holds a victory over top-class sprinter Blue Point, is a sight many thought we’d never see but after a disappointing career at stud he’s subsequently been gelded. If he’s anywhere near his best he’d demolish a field of this nature but after such an absence it’s difficult to think he won’t be a shadow of his former self.
EXALTED ANGEL (E/W)
written by Rory Paddock
15:25 Cheltenham
A competitive and intriguing handicap hurdle over two miles five furlong and a race full of mostly unexposed types.
Unexpected Party is interesting. An emphatic winner on handicap debut and despite it being a moderate looking race, he’s probably got off lightly with only an eleven pound rise. A mark of 120 could look silly after this.
Mackelduff also brings a hugely progressive profile into this contest. It’s very difficult to split these two progressive types.
Let’s now throw in two Irish contenders to muddy the water a little further. Good Time Jonny from the shrewd yard of Tony Martin hasn’t traveled just for a change of scenery. His chance is there for all to see.
Although slightly more exposed, Gowel Road is going to be the each way selection.
He was progressing nicely until his good run was halted in the County hurdle at the festival. That was a big ask for a novice in such a competitive race. He made a pleasing enough comeback at Chepstow. His mark looks manageable and he is almost certainly going to appreciate the step up in trip.
GOWEL ROAD (E/W)
written by Matt Polley
15:40 Lingfield
The final race on ITV this Saturday sees us return to the all-weather for yet another All-Weather Championship qualifier, this time over ten furlongs.
The clear market leader is recent Group 1 winner Pyledriver who claimed a close win in the Coronation Cup at Epsom back in June. He’s been absent since then but that shouldn’t put punters off. A classy type who was once touted as a lively outsider in last seasons Epsom Derby. Many may point to his lack of success and experience on an artificial surface but in his sole all-weather start he did finish as runner up in a Group 3 at Kempton. On paper he looks by far the classiest horse in what looks a pretty poor renewal and it’s pretty hard to see anything but a Pyledriver win.
Felix has found market support but he isn’t one I could make too much of a case for. He’s done most of his winning on an artificial surface so a return to this course is a definite positive but two lackluster efforts on the turf this summer left a lot to be desired and he’d need to improve on anything he’s achieved in his career to date in order to throw down a serious challenge.
Harrovian represents a top yard but has always failed when tackling this level. He’s shown enough in handicap company to suggest he deserves another crack in a listed race but the best he can hope for is filling one of the place positions.
For those on the hunt for an outsider there may be some merit in following a former John Gosden trained runner in the form of Dubai Warrior. He’s one of only three former course and distance winners in the line up and holds a record of three victories and one place from four starts here at Lingfield. One of those wins came in this race last year but a change of yard to David Loughnane resulted in him finishing stone last in a similar contest at Dundalk. I have to feel that performance was too bad to be true and with the stable now dining at the top table with a place over at the Breeders Cup it’s safe to say they can certainly get a horse ready to win a race of this nature. If you’re looking to follow him we have to hope he’s come on plenty for his stable debut and he could make his current odds of 16/1 look ridiculous come the off.
I’m in two minds which way to side with this but I’m going to air on the side of caution and although perhaps a boring choice the favourite looks the most likely to triumph.
PYLEDRIVER (WIN)
written by Rory Paddock
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