My best bet of the evening sees me side with a horse who I must confess has perhaps seen too much of my own money in the past month or two. Be that as it may I cannot shake off Eglish's performance when 6th three starts back. I felt the horse was given an overly easy ride that night and once his reigns were loosened he passed a lot of beaten horses. His most recent performance came on the turf at Bellewstown over one mile. Neither the course, nor the trip suited and the result can be readily ignored. A return to a shorter distance, especially back on the all-weather, is going to make a massive difference for this former three time course and distance winner. He resides on an attractive handicap mark and looks a decent each way bet.
Fellow course and distance victors Sunset Nova and Beleaguerment look likely to throw down a challenge with the latter the one I fear most.
The final contest of the eight race card from Newcastle this evening sees a very rare thing indeed. If the "tissue price" is to be believed then according to the Racing Post, Bobby Joe Leg is expected to be the 9/2 favourite. However as I write this (just approaching 16:30 on Thursday afternoon) the seven year old is priced at a massive 25/1! Now of course that could potentially a huge negative but I think there may be a few factors that could've potentially been neglected by those compiling the odds. Although Ruth Carr's runner has been competing in Class 6 company for most of his recent starts they have come with horses rated 0-65. The conditions for this contest however excludes any horses rated over 55 so in theory this should be a much easier test.
Now of course we have the likes of current market favourite Cool Dandy who beat the aforementioned Bobby Joe Leg over course and distance recently. He's got more weight on his back but I'm hoping, based on his 6th placed effort last time out, that the handicapper may have made it too tough a challenge.
Better By Far seemed to thrive on a return to an artificial surface when finishing second at Southwell in her most recent outing. Wouldn't be a shock to see her go close once again especially considering she's a three year old with room to improve.
All that being said however from a punting perspective I can't ignore the massive price of Bobby Joe Leg, especially as he hails from a yard who have been known to land wins with horses at big odds.
BOBBY JOE LEG (E/W)
written by Rory Paddock