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16:40 York

What will be the final of eleven races broadcast on ITV this Saturday we’re left with an ultra competitive sprint contest that looks an absolute nightmare to decipher with seven of the eleven runners claiming former course success.

I know it’s such a cliche in the world of racing but the phrase “Horses for courses” has been around as long as I can remember and the reason for its longevity is the fact there’s plenty of truth to it.

Sifting through those seven with former course success I look for horses that have raced here more than once and hold solid form figures on the Knavesmire.

Dakota Gold has great form at York but without a course and distance success doesn’t quite make the cut.

The favourite Winter Power can be forgiven for his latest effort in Group 1 company but despite a victory here has also produce a poor performance at this venue and an alternative option at a bigger price looks a wiser move.

The same can be said for the veteran El Astronaute who, despite winning here has also shown some disappointing runs here.

Lahore is a shadow of their former self and Bedford Flyer looks out of their depth.

This now leaves me with two that I’m struggling to split. Both Que Amoro and Moss Gill hold a fantastic record at York with neither of the five year olds finishing outside of the top three in a combined total of 10 runs. (Moss Gill - 2 wins, 2 2nds and 1 3rd) (Que Amoro - 2 wins, 2 2nds and 1 3rd)

Not only do they have identical course form figures but what makes splitting them even harder is that they’ve come up against one another here on three separate occasions. Moss Gill has won one of those races and the other two times Que Amoro finished ahead of Moss Gill.

As I sit here and write it I’m half tempted to just flip a coin so the only thing that will sway it ever so slightly is current trainer form. With Michael Dodds operating at strike rate above 20% compared to Edward Bethell’s 13% I am siding with Que Amoro but only by a paper thin margin.


written by Rory Paddock


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