TV TIPS – YORK EBOR FESTIVAL (SATURDAY)

13:45 York Yesterdays rain resulted in the going to change to Good after a couple of races and with more rain forecast overnight this could cut up as a few wouldn’t want it. Chancery and his connections are likely doing a rain-dance as we speak, a three time winner here including off a 3lbs lower mark last term on good to soft he has rather lost the plot of late but is undeniably well handicapped. From the O’Meara yard it is likely he has been kept with a race of this nature in mind and given a stable companion struck in handicap company earlier in the week, Chancery is taken to bounce back and land them another. Mark Johnston has approached this with more bullets to fire than a tommy gun, of his entrants Ode To Evening probably makes most visual appeal but the others are worthy of respect and market moves would be interesting. Snoano is a massive player and though he failed to land a telling blow at Goodwood the last day it should be remembered he was poorly drawn, a repeat of his win here before that over further would put him bang in the firing line and the early pace should suit him. Stipulate was heavily backed at Galway but rather failed to fire, his yard are having a good time of things at present however and his chances shouldn’t be ignored. Scarlet Dragon, Erik The Red and Fallen From A Star are others worthy of a mention and a win for any of them would hardly surprise anyone. Chancery (E/W if 9/2+)

14:15 York David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope have won this race for the last two years and team up again with Custom Cut, who won this race for them in 2014. He has won on just about all ground types so shouldn’t be too inconvenienced whatever the weather but hasn’t really been at his best this season and hasn’t tasted success for almost twelve months. Scottish became a Listed winner in July but despite being heavily supported could only manage second at Group level earlier this month. He’s made the frame in 70% of all career runs and looks sure to run his usual solid race but isn’t guaranteed to win and is a little short for an each way effort. Tullius has a perfect record here at York with two wins from two runs and arrives on the back of a Group 3 win on good-to-soft ground at Epsom when last seen in June. He runs well fresh and would look to have a big chance especially if we see more rain between now and race time. Diploma has also won on both previous visits to York, has won on good-to-soft, good and good-to-firm ground and gets a nice weight allowance now going up against the boys. She beat Fireglow by over three lengths in a Listed contest last time out despite being eased down close home so should be capable of taking this with a similar run here. Furthermore, Sir Michael Stoute has a 27% winning strike rate over the last two weeks and has booked Andrea Atzeni for the ride, who is in top form having already won four races here at York this week. Diploma (WIN)

14:30 Sandown Persuasive is unbeaten in four career runs, all over a mile, and has won on good and soft ground as well as on the all-weather. He is up against some tough competitors here but even so he looks impossible to oppose for the John Gosden yard who are operating at a 35% winning strike rate over the last two weeks. Both Blond Me and Spirit Raiser look to have reasonable each way chances but at a slightly bigger price I think September Stars looks like the biggest danger to the favourite. A winner of his last two, at combined distances of almost ten lengths, he looks to be in top form at the moment and is unbeaten since Jim Crowley took over in the saddle. A final mention goes to Red Box who ran a stormer to finish second to Namhroodah at Ascot in July only to be awarded the race in the stewards room. She couldn’t back that up next time out at Haydock but has only failed to finish in the first three once from six career runs and has to be a reasonable each way option here. Persuasive (WIN)

14:50 York Likely favourite Shraaoh bids to defy the market leaders shocking recent record in this and faces what can only be described as a bunch of unexposed types. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute he looked most unfortunate when just failing to chin one at Goodwood the last day and this step up in trip looks almost certain to suit. The worry with the favourite would be the ground as he misfired on rain softened ground at Ascot’s Royal meeting, that being said he deserves to head the market and is the one to beat. Jaameh finished just behind the Shraaoh at Goodwood and came from the back in doing so, a winner on Heavy any significant rain would be no problem and he is another almost sure to be suited by the extra yardage. Kellstorm and Unicorn represent Aiden O’Brien and deserve plenty of respect on that score alone, both have a bit to find however and easier races will appear in time. Regal Monarch is another improving type and his front running style could prove to be a big advantage around here, up 6lbs for winning last time is the only obvious negative but his yard supplied last seasons renewal and a big run looks on the cards. Master Blueyes and Emperor Napoleon are others with claims but a chance will be taken on the Johnston yard retaining the prize with their apparent second string, Jaameh. Jaameh (E/W if 9/2+)

15:05 Sandown South Seas has won twice over six furlongs, finishing very strongly to suggest that he should be able to take this step up to seven furlongs in his stride. Both wins came on soft ground so it is unclear if he will take his place if the ground remains good-to-firm, however further rain is forecast so he could get ideal conditions come race time. Frankel colt Majoris has already won twice over todays’ trip and has improved markedly for each career run so far, winning last time out by seven lengths. Both victories have come on decent ground so in contrast to the favourite he probably wouldn’t want too much rain but at early odds of around 8/1 i’m prepared to have an each way play in the hope there isn’t too much rain. Others deserving of a mention include Monticello who is a previous course and distance winner and Total Star who steps up markedly in class but was a five length winner last time out. Majoris (E/W if 9/2+)

15:25 York William Haggas has won this three times in the last ten years and runs the unbeaten Mubtasim in the hope of increasing his amazing record here. He has posted impressive wins on both career starts, both over todays’ trip, and is obviously held in high regard by the stable. I’m opposing him today simply because both victories came on good-to-firm ground and with more rain forecast before race time I fear we will be looking at good ground at the very best. Blue Point won his first two races, the second by eleven clear lengths, before coming up just short in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. Both wins came on very fast ground which he is unlikely to encounter here which makes his early price too short for me. At a bigger price Dream Of Dreams is worthy of a mention, racing for trainer Kevin Ryan who won this race in 2012 and 2013. He is partnered by Jamie Spencer who has won three races already at the festival this week and will be looking to add to his tally on a decent-looking two year old who has won and placed over todays’ trip on ground with a bit of give. Mokarris wasn’t seen to best effect in the Coventry but absolutely flew home in the Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury when last seen. This was on good-to-firm ground but he was also very impressive on good-to-soft ground on racecourse debut at Haydock and seems to travel very strongly throughout his races before being let loose to put his races to bed in a matter of strides. He looks to be progressing nicely and with the promise of more to come gets the vote here. Mokarris (WIN)

15:40 Sandown Baydar is bound to be popular in this having won his last two in decent fashion and given the fact he’s only three. Up in class today it will be most interesting to see how Hugo Palmers challenger fares but his chance is clear and talented claimer Josephine Gordon offsets 3lbs of his 5lbs penalty. Bermondsey bolted up over track and trip two starts back and was a hot favourite to follow up at Ascot the time after with a whopping 10lbs penalty, in the event he flopped but it was too bad a flop to blame entirely on the penalty and a return to this venue is intriguing. Fire Fighting is as tough as old boots and went in at Newmarket the last day, his record is very difficult to knock but he will have to be on top form to land this and is reluctantly taken on. Master Of The World is usually the master of defeats as he can get behind, frustrating for win punters he has every chance of placing again and is respected on that score. Goodwood Mirage has been around a while and has been over hurdles, seemingly done over obstacles now he won here last time and is thrown in if he recaptures his best in this sphere. Oasis Fantasy and Scrutinise are other frustrating types with chances but a chance will be taken on Luca Cumani’s Bermondsey proving good enough. Bermondsey (E/W if 9/2+)

16:00 York (Ebor) The showpiece of the York meeting and yet another renewal of the Ebor that can only be described as a minefield. Oriental Fox has done nothing but cost me money all season and could hardly be recommended with any confidence in this. His most recent effort resulted in a tailed off finish and though he was badly hampered his failure at Ascot earlier was very frustrating given how strongly fancied he was. Quite what has happened to his form is hard to fathom but he ran 5th in this a few seasons ago and the handicapper has given him a chance today (2lbs lower than when 2nd in last seasons Cesarewich) If he somehow miraculously returns to form that mark could well be taken advantage of and as such an extremely tentative if tiresome vote is handed to him. Tony Martin saddled a placed horse in a handicap and is always a trainer to note in these big handicaps, double handed with Quick Jack and Heartbreak City it would neither surprise nor annoy if he landed this though personally Quick Jack would the one I fancied more of his two. Shrewd has improved out of all recognition on the level and over hurdles and though the handicapper has seemingly caught with him lately, he has still run with credit and is a serious player if getting the gaps. Elidor isn’t the top weight for no reason and is another worth respecting, he could well defy the handicapper and Godolphins Antiquriam is another with serious claims in a red hot renewal. Oriental Fox (E/W)

16:35 York For me this looks to be between the two market principles Sutter County and Final Reckoning. Sutter County has won both career runs over the minimum trip, beating Dream Of Dreams when last seen at Newmarket in April on good-to-soft ground. A solid run from the Kevin Ryan colt in the earlier race would seemingly further enhance his chances here but regardless he is taken to maintain his unbeaten record here. As mentioned above the biggest danger looks to be Final Reckoning who takes a step back to five furlongs for todays’ race but arrives looking to complete a hat-trick of wins and has won previously on ground with some give. Of the remainder Afandem has winning form on good and soft ground and is two from two over five furlongs. He is yet to follow up on a victory but still looks a danger with the in-form Andrea Atzeni in the saddle. Sutter County (WIN)

17:05 York The final race of the Ebor meeting and a familiar flavour to our theme today as the O’Meara yard once again supply the selection in the form of Lathom. Seemingly always the bridesmaid he has always threatened to land one of these races yet has always managed to flatter to deceive, as was the case at Doncaster on his most recent start. Drawn up the middle today he will get the strong pace he seems to enjoy and is afforded one final chance to put his head in front. Laughton beat the selection at Goodwood last time and is a most progressive type, his 4lbs penalty for that success doesn’t appear to be excessive and his yard are in good order. Midnight Malibu is chasing the hat-trick and couldn’t be discounted, along with stablemate Celebration he is afforded the upmost respect. El Astronaute is infuriating but talented, he will almost certainly come good in one of these but whether its todays race is another matter. Just Glamourous looks the pace angle and could bounce back from a disappointing effort the last day and Quatrieme Ami makes plenty of appeal if fully revved up. Lathom (E/W if 9/2+)

PicksfromthePaddock.co.uk Pundit Rory Paddock previews The Chester Stakes (15:15) in todays Racing Plus. Grab your copy today and follow them on Twitter.