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TV TIPS (SATURDAY)

13:50 York


Mighty Ulysses got the better of the re-opposing Alflaila when they met at Newmarket early last month, taking a small group along from the front and showing good battling qualities to regain the lead after being briefly headed around a furlong out. Alflaila did little wrong in defeat and has since had success at Listed level when beating Maries Diamond at Pontefract when last seen.


The race looks to be between the two, with slight preference being for Owen Burrows’ runner who looks the more likely of the two to benefit from this slightly longer trip.


ALFLAILA (WIN)


written by Dean Kilbryde

14:05 Sandown


The opening race from Sandown is a Group 3 contest for fillies and mares where it is the three year olds who dominate the market and looks a very strong contest on paper.


Grande Dame comes into the race as favourite following the withdrawal of the other John Gosden runner Laurel. She was impressive over course and distance last time out, posting her best performance to date. It’s difficult to say what bought about that improvement but the bare form, to beat Oscula by over three lengths is quite impressive as that rival has since landed a Group 3 contest over in France.


She is very closely matched on form with Fonteyn from their York clash with Fonteyn coming out on top by a head. She then went on to finish only just over three lengths behind Nashwa last time out despite seemingly not being suited by the distance.


Mise En Scene has some really nice form as a two-year-old and any of those four performances bring her right into the mix here. Her latest performance though to mark the start of her three-year-old campaign was disappointing, and she does therefore come with risks attached today.


It is difficult to see any of the older horses getting involved having to give six pounds to their younger rivals.


My selection will go to Grande Dame based purely on the value of the course and distance form. She is the only one in the field to win here at Sandown and though it’s a tight call between the top two in the market, I’m siding with the John Gosden filly to gain a group success here.


GRANDE DAME (WIN)

written by Tom Bates



14:25 York


Soulcombe at the time of writing comes into this as the market favourite, Didn't start of to well at Goodwood but did look a bit of an eyecatcher doing his best work at the end of the race. Can see why people see it as a bit of an eyecatcher given its at the lower end of the weights.


Inverness was ahead of Soulcombe that day and you could argue didn't get the best of luck in the run in. A little surprised to see him a double figure price here and you could argue has a each way shout.


Godolphin are double handed here and Buick prefers Wild Crusade compared to Al Nafir. which would suggest Wild Crusade is the preferred choice. Can see why as his form on paper does look stronger than Al Nafir. Given as well Wild Crusade has already won at the course.


My selection though at a attractive each way price (I'm sure some bookies will pay 4 places) is the Joseph O'Brien trained Nusret. Nusret is not without a chance and Joseph O'Brien can be shrewd when it comes to placing his horses. Nusret is being upped in trip for the first time today and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be bringing him to York if he didn't believe he would stay.


Jockey M P Sheehy takes a handy 3 pounds of to ease him down the weights a little. But Nusret himself has been improving with each race and got his head in front last time out at Curragh in a maiden. Certainly, more to come from Nusret given he won quite easily and it looks like this step up in trip will help him.


NUSRET (E/W)


written by Luke Tucker


14:40 Sandown

The Solario Stakes looks particularly competitive this year, The Queen’s runner Desert Hero won on his debut at the end of June at Haydock. Likely to head the market due to his high-profile connections I would have some concerns however around the ground for him. The debut came on soft and this will be a different challenge for him, Silver Knott will also be towards the top of the market. Perhaps at the time his debut would have appeared disappointing only finishing fourth but since then the winner Chaldean was impressive at York that debut looks more positive now. He subsequently got off the mark second time out in a novice at Kempton but this will require some progression.

Defence Of Fort is my pick for today though, he got off the mark on debut in extremely impressive fashion at Ascot. Peter Chapple-Hyam would not be known for debutant winners, so this colt could well and truly be above average and certainly gave that impression at Ascot. Thursday’s York winner Kyeema could not get within 5L that day and even had the benefit of experience, I feel Defence Of Fort will take all the beating in this Group 3.

DEFENCE OF FORT (WIN) written by Michael Taylor

15:00 York


Sandrine and Kinross produced a fantastic finish in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last month, with the former just holding on to record a neck victory and the re-opposing duo of Pogo and Sacred also playing a part, coming home in third and fifth respectively. If there was a little more juice in the ground I would expect Kinross to be able to reverse the form, and I do expect the two to be pretty evenly matched once again, however with no rain on the horizon and therefore good-to-firm highly likely I expect Sandrine will be able to follow up with another victory today.


SANDRINE (WIN)

written by Dean Kilbryde



15:35 York An impossible looking race to seriously pick apart though one of the feature handicaps of the season and with £300k on offer for the winner, one would expect the Ebor to look as brilliantly competitive as this renewal does. Before casting our eyes over the field, we shall look at some of the recent trends in an attempt to narrow down the field though the immediate suggestion is to play at least a couple to give yourself a realistic chance.


Recent trainer trends strongly suggest the Irish have started to seriously map this race out and four of the last ten winners have been trained in Ireland. Strongly represented this time around with six runners, one would have to seriously consider the raiders plundering the prize once more although separating the chances of that six set to run, appears a tough task.


Betting favourites have a rather off-putting record and have recorded just one win from the last ten although four others have filled out a position within the first four. Age trends are harder to gauge though perhaps surprisingly, the six-year-olds come out on top recently and have won four of the last ten. Sticking to the same time frame, older horses can win this and a seven-year-old has recently, however, you would have to go back a long way to find a winner as old as Euchen Glen and so despite his preference for big fields, he is one we shall take on immediately despite his lofty market position. Last on the list is the draw and here is where it perhaps gets interesting, only two horses over the last decade have won from low draws, with eight being drawn twelve or higher.


Having looked at the trends and considered them, our first vote shall be handed to Irish raider, Earl Of Tyrone. Raced quite sparingly this season, there is a strong suspicion that this has always been the plan for the Paddy Twomey trained four-year-old. Impressive at both Bellewstown and the Curragh, he took his form to another level when scoring in commanding fashion in a Listed race last time out and he arrives here looking well handicapped for a yard that are flying at present.


Get Shirty represents the home team and he too has won his last three races for David O'Meara. Proven on most types of going and clearly ultra-progressive, he would want seriously considering despite having to carry top-weight.


Okita Soushi finished behind Get Shirty at Ascot though that doesn't tell the tale of the tape as he was given far too much to do. Very lightly raced and entitled to reverse those placings today, he must be very high on the list although he was bitterly disappointing when turned over at Leopardstown the last day.


Gaassee is four from six and another to have been beaten by Get Shirty, once more there is something of a story attached to that defeat as the Haggas four-year-old was repeatedly stopped in his run, before fairly rattling home inside the last furlong. Very well bred and apparently well handicapped, it would come as no shock if he gained compensation here but he will need the gaps to appear.


John Leeper was very highly tried as a three-year-old and has basically proven to be fairly disappointing since, given the promise shown at two. Twice placed in Pattern company at this course, he could have this run to suit but it is hard to shake the feeling that there are others on better marks.


License is a lightly raced son of Frankel who represents Ger Lyons (saddled the winner of this three years ago) impossible to nail down mark-wise, he may have had this as his target for some time and respect must be afforded given his handlers know-how.


Shanroe has some serious form and a repeat of his effort when fourth in last season's running may well enable him to once again place. Allowed to race off the same mark today, he arrives here in decent heart although at eight, he looks vulnerable to younger legs.


Ever Present, Benaud and Enemy are selected others with claims but a chance will be taken on Gaassee getting the gaps and filling at least a place with a win vote handed to Earl Of Tyrone who looks like he has been aimed at this for quite some time.

EARL OF TYRONE (WIN)

GAASSEE (E/W)


written by Chris Connolly 16:10 York Summerghand deserves a win. With so many near misses and things such as poor draws going against him this season it’d be great to finally see him finish with his head in front. However the head rules the heart here and although he’s produced some okay performances at this venue he’s never gone close to tasting victory on the Knavesmire. I’d love to see him come out on top but others look a more attractive betting proposition.


With nineteen runners set to enter the stalls in the final race on ITV this Saturday I’m finding myself with a shortlist of three in which it’s becoming impossible to narrow down.


The first of my trio is a former course and distance winner who, unlike the aforementioned Summerghand, holds a very impressive record of two wins from three previous starts at York. Keith Dalgliesh loves a winner here and his five year old is now back to his last winning mark. His form of late hasn’t been the best but Volatile Analyst looks massively overpriced and is definitely worth a small each way bet.


The other two runners includes another course victor who drops down to six furlongs for the first time in his ten race career. Saleymm disappointed at Goodwood last time out so a drop in trip should be of benefit. Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 100% record when partnering this four year old and if the young front-runner relishes this sprint trip we could see further improvement.


The third and final selection has been knocking on the door of success for parts of this season having finished placed in two listed races and a close second at Goodwood last time out. The handicapper may have him in his grasps with a 5lb rise after his most recent performance but if he’s anywhere near his best it’ll be hard to see him finish outside of the money.


Of the remainder the ultra-consistent Spangled Mac looks to be a horse on an upward trajectory and poses a serious threat and at a bigger price Gulliver can produce a decent performance but only if the rain pours.


VOLATILE ANALYST (E/W)

SALEYMM (E/W)

TABDEED (E/W)


written by Rory Paddock

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