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13:50 Haydock
Sadly we’re greeted by yet another small field with just the four set to go to post in the opening race on ITV.
Although it may come back to bite me on the proverbial it’s hard to look elsewhere other than a win for the current odds-on favourite Bravemansgame. With just the quartet set to lineup we can’t even hunt for an each way alternative but after his success at Newton Abbott Paul Nicholls’ runner is likely to improve further and a race of this nature is well within his grasp.
According to the bookmakers Itchy Feet seems the most likely to pose any form of threat to the market principle. A one length second behind Allmankind is perhaps the best recent form on offer out of all of these runners, yet I fear Olly Murphy’s charge will continue to fall foul to a classier type. A horse who hasn’t lived up to the expectations many put on him early in his career. It wouldn’t be a drastic FA Cup style giant killing if the seven-year-old were to come out on top but although boring it’s Bravemansgame’s to lose.
BRAVEMANSGAME (WIN)
written by Rory Paddock
14:05 Ascot
An interesting Grade 2 contest with horses that have shown plenty of ability, but also have a few questions to answer.
Dashel Drasher arguably has less to prove than most. Progressive last season when he shone over course and distance and he’s back again here. However the ground will be a lot quicker than the softer conditions he showed improved form on. With a Grade 1 penalty to carry he’s vulnerable.
Defi Du Seuil still has age on his side, but there has to be question marks hanging over him. He has had a wind op though, and the ground will be in his favour especially over this intermediate trip. Combine that with the fact the yard are in good form and he is officially best in at the weights, there’s definitely a feeling this horse has unfinished business.
Another yard in exceptional form this season is that of the Tizzard's. That however is the only conceivable reason why you’d give Lostintranslation a chance. Sadly he looks regressive after his massive run in the 2020 Gold Cup.
The horse that looks a massive price at the time of writing (14s - 16s widely available) is Pistol Whipped. He obviously has a bit to find at the weights, but it’s interesting the yard are happy to almost certainly rule out handicapping for this horse if he’s to run well here. Off a current mark of 153 there’s no doubt he could win a nice handicap prize, but he’s in this Grade 2 contest and that would suggest this seven year old is improving. Trip and ground are perfect and he looks primed to outrun those odds.
PISTOL WHIPPED (WIN)
written by Matt Polley
14:25 Haydock
The Grade 3 Stayers' Handicap Hurdle is worth £100,000, so it’s no surprise to see a strong sixteen runner field facing the starter. This race has been in existence since 2005 with David Pipe the winning most trainer with four victories to his name. Pipe is doubly represented this year with Marthinal (25/1) and Brinkley (20/1) who’s the choice of stable jockey Tom Scudamore. Brinkley is lightly raced and gained valuable experience when finishing midfield in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham when last seen but may struggle to shoulder his hefty weight around Haydock.
Emmet Mullins has made a habit of plundering big pots on his raids across the Irish Sea and is responsible for the current favourite Rightplacerightime. The son of Kalanisi has only one victory over hurdles and has contested nine handicaps since that win. The English handicapper added 17lbs onto his Irish handicap mark and even with Harry Kimber’s 7lb claim, he’s 10lbs wrong in comparison to his Irish mark. Emmet has a proven record of improving horses from other yards but it’s probably best to look elsewhere.
The one I like is Bass Rock who’s won his last two starts in taking fashion. Both of those victories came following a wind-op and the application of a tongue tie. He won going away at Carlisle which suggests that he’ll appreciate the step up in trip and he’s my idea of the winner.
BASS ROCK (E/W)
written by Peter Keogh
14:40 Ascot
This Grade 2 event is a very intriguing affair and one which I am extremely excited to watch as the winner may have bigger and more exciting targets on his agenda. Goshen at his best is an unbelievable horse but he has a massive question mark over the ground and he wouldn’t represent value in this race. Buzz is likely to start a very short favourite after his Cesarewitch heroics and his second to Abracadabras in the Aintree Hurdle may be good enough form to take this contest but I would look for better value elsewhere.
Molly Ollys Wishes and Guard Your Dreams have both already won this season and are both on an upward curve and may take advantage if the other three runners flatter to deceive in this contest. Song for Someone, who won this race last year, would be my selection in this contest. I’m willing to forgive his run behind Buzz in the Aintree Hurdle as he had endured some hard races last campaign and I think it’s likely that the break and wind surgery will have done him the world of good, he won’t mind the ground and I’m taking him to win at what might be a very tasty price!
SONG FOR SOMEONE (WIN)
written by Tom Bates
15:00 Haydock
A decent renewal for this years Betfair Chase with some top-class participants. However, the majority of field would prefer Soft/Heavy going and the race will be won by the horse that can go best on an unfavourable surface. Favourite here is A Plus Tard the talented Irish raider trained by Henry De Bromhead. His second in the Gold Cup on Good /Soft going when last seen sets the standard here and suggests that whilst preferring softer ground he can cope with the going here if it is genuinely Good / Soft ground. He was beaten at odds on his reappearance last year.
This is Bristol De Mai’s race having won it three times and a good second last year on ground like todays. He tries to emulate the great Kauto Star by winning this race four times. He is best when fresh and absolutely loves Haydock, in five races at the Lancashire track he’s won four of them by aggregate of 117 lengths. He would prefer softer conditions but did beat Native River by four lengths on good ground here in 2018. Would there be a more popular winner than him in the whole of the season?
Waiting Patiently hasn’t been seen too often in recent times but has some top-class form including a second to Frodon in last years King George. He has moved from Ruth Jefferson to Christian Williams who is an up-and-coming trainer, he would need to improve for the change of scenery as he hasn’t won now for over three years.
In addition to winning this four times with Kauto Star Paul Nicholls has also won twice in recent years with Silviniaco Conti and runs Next Destination who may find It tough stepping from Novice company to Grade One.
Of the rest Imperial Aura is a decent horse and the step up to three miles should suit but some of Kim Baileys have needed their first run and he’s passed over today. Clondaw Castle sluiced up in a handicap when stepped up to three miles last Christmas at Kempton, he was then a good second in a Aintree Grade one. He is a consistent horse and has finished in the first three in his last eight runs. He looks to have been ignored by the market.
A Plus Tard brings the best form here but it is his first trip to Haydock and he lacks a recent run. That does not apply to Bristol De Mai who goes so well fresh and absolutely loves this course he can win for a record equaling fourth time. Clondaw Castle is unexposed at this trip and can finish in the places at a value price.
BRISTOL DE MAI (WIN)
CLONDAW CASTLE (E/W)
written by Steve Marriott
15:15 Ascot
We are now starting to get into the heart of the winter National Hunt action, Ascot on a Saturday in November and this 2-mile handicap chase will no doubt be exciting. Form lines a plenty here with this field of seven, likely favourite Before Midnight hoping to get the better of Sky Pirate again like he did at Cheltenham four weeks ago. He comes here with a progressive profile and although he has been raised 8lbs he should confirm that form.
There is a different form line though and that is the one I will be siding with, from a C&D Listed race three weeks ago. The race in question saw Amoola Gold come from the clouds to head Monsieur Lecoq in the final strides with Sully D’Oc AA back in fifth. Monsieur Lecoq would be my idea of the winner as I feel he just idled the last day having been sent clear and that left him vulnerable to the closing Amoola Gold. Hopefully with a more patient ride today and with company longer into the race he will take the spoils.
MONSIEUR LECOQ (WIN)
written by Michael Taylor
15:35 Haydock
This could prove to be a piece of perfect placing from Christian Williams, as his hat-trick seeking, Strictlyadancer might not have to improve much to land this. Impressive enough when winning at Cheltenham in October, he followed that up with an even better display at the same venue last week and the handicapper's decision to nudge him up just seven pounds, looks fairly lenient. Proven at the trip and with the likelihood of further improvement to come, he is very hard to take on today despite being plenty short enough in the betting.
Ramses De Teillee ran encouragingly enough on his comeback over Hurdles last month to warrant serious respect here, his connections gave him a pipe opener over smaller obstacles last year and he duly won the time after over fences. Attempting to give nearly two stones away to the above-mentioned market leader will take a serious effort though he is the proven class act of this race and he has won over these demanding fences before.
Empire Steel improved for the switch to chasing last season and he readily brushed aside Protektorat at Kelso before finding a Grade One at Aintree too hot. Attempting to put a strong number (Rating Wise) next to his name appears something of a thankless task although one would have to surmise that 140 looks at the very least, fair. From a shrewd yard and very lightly raced, there is every chance he will play a part if ready although there will be easier days ahead and he is worth bearing in mind for future purposes.
Potters Corner and Joke Dancer could be dangerous if at their best but it is with a heavy heart that we take on Strictlyadancer with Ramses De Teillee, on the premise that the latter is just more proven at this stage and that a known ability to handle this course often counts for plenty.
RAMSES DE TEILEE (WIN) written by Chris Connolly
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