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13:45 Newmarket
State Occasion has shown plenty of promise in her two runs so far this season and is expected to be suited by the step up in trip, while Swoon won over twelve furlongs at Wolves in July and was very impressive when switching to turf and blitzing a small field over nine furlongs at Carlisle in August. Both warrant plenty of respect, as does Evident Beauty who won on debut and has made the frame in all three runs since, however all of the above have only raced on fast ground so with the ground already easing and further rain forecast preference is for Alpine Mistral whose last two career wins came over todays' trip on soft ground. Admittedly her wins have come in lower grades than today, however she returned after a wind op with a decent run at Sandown over a trip too short last time out and has the perfect trip and conditions to be able to get involved today.
ALPINE MISTRAL (E/W)
written by Dean Kilbryde
14:05 Ascot
The opening live ITV contest from Ascot this afternoon looks an ultra competitive five furlong sprint.
At the head of the market we see this years Portland winner Hurricane Ivor who went on to also claim success in a Group 3 at Newbury last time out. He's certainly going through some form of renaissance at the end of this term and continues to improve with each run. It'd be foolish to discount him entirely and it'd come as no shock if he were to claim victory once again but I hope I've found one at a bigger price to side with here.
Dakota Gold may have had a relatively poor season this year but returns to a course he holds a 100% strike rate. In fact he actually won this race back in 2019. With the weather set to ensure the ground is on the softer side that should also improve the Michael Dod's trained horse's chances with most of the seven year old's wins coming on ground with a bit of cut. He needs to show more than he has done of late but looks a solid each way selection.
Of the remainder the only filly in the field Keep Busy should also relish the softer ground and if he can overcome an absence in excess of a year the Group 2 winning Minzaal has the class to produce a serious challenge.
DAKOTA GOLD (E/W)
written by Rory Paddock
14:20 Newmarket
A traditionally difficult race, the October Auction Stakes is a 6 furlong race where currently 30 are heading to post and the going is Good to Soft.
Fearby leads the market off a whopping 104 rating, meaning he's carrying too weight at 9st 3lbs, however he has a lot in hand over the field.
My complete outsider is Sir Henry Cotton, currently at 50/1. Some decent performances have been put in this season over the same distance and going. Hayley Turner takes the ride and with 5 places available in places, I think this could be a live outsider.
SIR HENRY COTTON (E/W)
written by Charlie Sharp
14:40 Ascot
An open looking Group 3 race at Ascot. It's difficult to tell what the ground will be with the rain due in the morning and raining throughout the meeting in the day at Ascot. Current market favourite Hukum clearly is a talented horse and has won some big races already this season. Was beaten as a 30/100 favourite last time out at Kempton. Trainer Owen Burrows reported Hukum had suffered some respiratory noise after the race despite this did manage to come 2nd in that race at Kempton. I guess it comes with a risk to back him and I believe Hukum is better on a quicker surface so if the rain came maybe a slight negative. Title looks a talented horse but would need a career best to win this. Also judged on his previous form on ground he wouldn't want to much rain as well. Though looked good at Doncaster last time out in a class 2 handicap. Alounak at a bigger each way price could be in contention today. however, The form of jockey Silvestre De Sousa at Ascot is a worry has not won there in around 40 rides so you have to be a brave backing a jockey completely out of form on the Ascot course. A horse I do fancy, who will appreciate any rain to soften up the ground (Currently Good To Soft) is Quickthorn for Hughie Morrison. A winner at Royal Ascot this year winning impressively when the ground was heavy that day and as such has the course form. My only concern is the trip might be slightly on the short side. However, if the rain does get into the ground, it will become more of a stamina test which is bound to suit. Won last time out in a class 2 at Salisbury so is a horse in good form. This was on good ground so it won't be the end of the world if it does not rain for him. Jockey Cieren Fallon is in good form as well operating at a 32% strike rate (9 Winners in his last 28 races) Will need a career best to win today. And I'm hoping for rain for Quickthorn. I do think it will inconvenience others if it does get into the ground. QUICKTHORN (WIN)
written by Luke Tucker
14:55 Newmarket
A top class renewal of this season’s Group 1 Sun Chariot is the feature race at a likely rain soaked HQ.
Snow Lantern is likely to head the market. She is likely to still be improving at this stage of the season. A big framed filly who was not rushed early in her career and missed the Guineas as it was thought the race might come to soon for her.
Conditions should be ideal, with a likely decent pace for her to aim at and some cut in the ground. She is reunited with regular jockey Sean Levey who knows her well. He was on board when partnering her to a Falmouth success on the Rowley miles sister track. Her latest start in France can be overlooked as the steady pace was unhelpful, she looks sure to go well here.
It only seems like yesterday that Mother Earth, Saffron Beach and Fev Rover were fighting out the finish in the 1000 Guineas. All of these fillies have run well since May.
Fev Rover ran a fine race to finish third in the 1000 Guineas on ground that was arguably too quick for her and maybe the two slightly below par performances that followed may have been a result of those exertions. She was given some time to recover and after a break came back with a fine effort in Ireland on a more suitable surface.
The likely set up of this race should suit her perfectly, with pace and some cut in the ground. Presumably the plan with Jamie Spencer on board will be to switch the filly off in the early stages and pounce when the leaders have cried enough.
FEV ROVER (E/W)
written by Matt Polley
15:15 Ascot
Great Ambassador has gone from strength to strength this season and continued that impressive run of form when finishing second in the Ayr Gold Cup. That being said, he is yet to win on this ground and this is a hard Group Three. Moreover, he hasn’t got the greatest record at Ascot. It could be a tall order for him today.
Diligent Harry has quite a few things going for him. Firstly, three year old horses have a decent record in this race, bolstered by the weight advantage they have over their rivals. Secondly, he’s around the same rating as a few previous winners. Additionally, he’s been placed in front of a few of these in this race. However, this is quite a step up in class and he would have to defy a 77 day break.
You could make a case for a few of these, in this race, but none more so than Glen Shiel. His last two visits to Ascot have been in Group One company, one of which he won and the in the other, he was second. That form alone puts him alone at the front in this race. He’s not been at his best in his last few races but the fast ground could excuse those runs. Conversely, he gets his much preferred softer ground today. If he can overcome those last couple of races, he’ll be hard to beat.
GLEN SHIEL (WIN)
written by Kieran McHugh
15:35 Redcar
Although this is a listed race the official ratings of these two year olds can still be illuminating and as such it’s interesting to note that the two at the head of the market are the two top rated horses in the race. Chipotle is rated one pound ahead of Vintage Clarets however, on today’s terms Vintage Clarets receives six pounds making him five pound better off than if this race was a handicap.
Chipotle is a Royal Ascot winner (Windsor Castle Stakes) but was also the winner of the Brocklesby the first two-year-old race of the season right back in March. This is Chipotle’s ninth race of the season, a lot for a young horse. This is also his first attempt at six furlongs.
Vintage Clarets is also coming in to the race off the back of a long season having his eighth race today and he also ran well at Royal Ascot finishing third in the Coventry Stakes. He has held his form well without winning since early on in the season and although of the two-market leaders I definitely prefer the chances of Vintage Clarets the long season is a concern, although his trainer has won this race twice in the past three years.
Of the rest Poetikal Place is interesting, she only made her debut last month at Haydock and caught the eye when travelling strongly for a long way before finishing sixth. At the time of that race, she had a group one entry so has clearly shown something at home. She needs to improve a lot but that’s not out of the question.
A similar type is Atomize who was fourth on debut at Yarmouth.
Of the more fancied runners Vintage Clarets is the most likely winner receiving a nice weight allowance from Chipotle and his stable does well in this race. that being said however I am also going to take a chance with Poetikal Place.
VINTAGE CLARETS (WIN)
POETIKAL PLACE (E/W)
written by Steve Marriott
15:50 Ascot
Typically for an Ascot Handicap, plenty of angles can be had or approached here although we shall keep this rather short and on point. Escobar will have his followers in the poor house by now and advising him for win purposes would be fairly rash given he has failed to register a victory since October of 2019. Often there or thereabouts, he usually finishes with a fair rattle and has twice gone close lately in pattern company. Currently rated a solitary pound higher than any mark he has won off before, he is taken to weave through at the business end and grab some place money at double figure odds.
Aldaary has looked unlucky a few times this season and was too far back to play a telling part at York the last day, all three of his losses this term have come on good to firm ground however and the recent rain will surely aid his chances. Strictly speaking and on recent trends, stall two looks the only possible negative although William Haggas has his horses firing at present and he afforded the vote for win purposes.
River Nymph is two from two over the course and distance and rates as a big danger. Proven on going with ease in it, he likely has more to offer though he will need a career best of his mark.
Aratus has rattled off four successive victories and arrives here as the unknown quantity, closely matched with Escobar, there is every chance he has more left in the locker although the forecast rain would pose a significant question if getting into the ground.
Tomfre likely needs this to get testing but could play a part if getting those conditions and though Fresh has to prove up to this trip, he has shown a good deal of ability and is respected.
ALDAARY (WIN)
ESCOBAR (E/W)
written by Chris Connolly
