15:40 York – Ebor Handicap
The Ebor Handicap, named after the shortened form of Eboracum (the Roman name for York) is the most valuable handicap race in Europe, first run in 1843. Given that there are around twenty runners competing in such a competitive race, it is no surprise to see that seven of the last ten renewals have produced winners at odds of 12/1 or higher, with four of those coming at 20/1 or higher.
The early favourite is Stratum who was last seen winning the JLT Cup at Newbury in July, staying on strongly to win by three lengths and beating three subsequent winners in the process. He has a couple of entries at Group level later in the season so a big run can be expected, yet in such a competitive race I feel the odds offer little by way of value and as such I’m happy to look elsewhere. It is worth noting that Willie Mullins also runs Whiskey Sour who has winning form on both the flat and over hurdles. He has done all his winning on soft ground but would have to be considered if the rain arrives.
Any horse with a 50% career winning strike rate deserves a look and although all of Teodoro’s victories have come over shorter trips than he encounters here, his trainer Tom Dascombe is in great form and knows what it takes to train the winner of a big-field handicap so Teodoro is respected accordingly.
Sea The Lion is unbeaten in three this season and is now rated 104 from a starting point of 83 in May. All three of these victories have come over twelve furlongs but in each of the last two he has needed every yard to be able to eke out the win so the step up in trip could see further improvement and as such he is not ruled out for place purposes.
Nakeeta returns to defend his crown having won this race last season and although 4lbs higher this time around he returns to a trip that he has had three wins and a place from five runs and a course that he obviously performs well at, having made the frame in three from four runs. He finished almost four lengths behind Stratum when they last met but re-opposes with both course and distance in his favour this time around so should make a bold bid to win this race again and can be expected to be in the mix at the very least so is the selection for the feature race of the day.
13:50 York – Mustashry (WIN)
14:05 Goodwood – Atlyn Orda (WIN)
14:25 York – Corgi (WIN)
14:40 Goodwood – Look Around (WIN)
15:00 York – Expert Eye (WIN) – NAP
15:15 Goodwood – Aces (E/W)