TV TIPS (SATURDAY)

13:50 Newbury This is very difficult to decipher as favourite Tobefair beat second favourite Scotchtown by 1 1/2 lengths when the pair met at Warwick last month. The handicapper has given the latter a 3lbs pull in the weights (Penalties counted) and so it would appear he has a very good chance of reversing the form, he also has the services of a very good 7lbs claimer but it would be unwise to think a reversal is a good thing. Tobefair it has to be said won comfortably the last day and probably idled in front, his rate of progression has been remarkable and this drop in trip is of no concern. Unbeaten now in his last 6 races it will surely only be a matter of time before the handicapper finally gets a proper hold of him but he is clearly thriving. Bryden Boy won easily at Ayr last time and seems to be progressing nicely for Jenny Candlish, the handicappers reaction to that was to slap down a 10lbs penalty but he looks up to competing at this level. Lac Fontana is impossible to weigh up and has never won at the trip, Paul Nicholls decision to run stable companion Red Hanrahan hardly inspires confidence in either but both deserve respect. Cadeau George flopped when favourite last time and is hard to forgive for that despite looking a tough sort the time before and Rolling Maul despite looking likely to get an easy lead has let down too often to be trusted. The others winning would be a little tough to swallow so all things considered, the highly progressive Tobefair is taken to once again defy the handicapper. Tobefair (WIN)

14:05 Warwick Surtee Du Berlais looked beaten some way out at Kempton before powering home in the latter stages and pulling almost 4 Lengths clear of the re-opposing Ron’s Dream in November. Since then Oliver Sherwood’s mare flopped in a Grade One but she ought to fare better here despite the niggling feeling that perhaps Kempton rather fell into her hands. Ron’s Dream on the other-hand has since flopped over fences though the handicapper has given her a good chance of reversing earlier form with the aforementioned Surtee Du Berlais and so instead of over-complicating things a straight forward nod in her direction is advised. Jessber’s Dream has something to find with the earlier mentioned pair and though likely to strip fitter today, she has to be taken on at the odds. Whizzey Rascal arrives here in search of the hat-trick and is a major danger being in such form, like Dolores Delightful however the pair are more proven in handicaps. Ron’s Dream (WIN)

14:25 Newbury A quite appalling turnout for this see’s only three taking their chance and despite two of them being talked of as Gold Cup contenders, a trial this most certainly is not. Bristol De Mai is as solid as a rock and has a quite beautiful way of jumping, high class as a Novice he had rather struggled to get his head in front before absolutely routing a decent field at Haydock over 3m and the form of that has been well and truly franked. Native River too was a very good Novice but his season so far in open company has been such that he currently trades as second favourite for the Cheltenham centre piece. Heavily backed and impressive when winning the Hennessy he proved that to be no fluke when looking a different league to his rivals in the Welsh National (Admittedly tired late) This drop in trip will be no problem for him and his uncomplicated front running style should make him very hard to beat. Le Mercurey beat Bristol De Mai as a Novice but hasn’t looked anything like that this term and is here in all likelihood to pick up the third placed place money. Native River (WIN)

14:40 Warwick Another poor numerical turnout but quite an interesting event and some decent form being brought to the table. Gino Trail at 10 is quite hard to call a Novice but a novice he is and with few miles on the clock he is open to a fair amount of improvement. His second behind Buveur D’Air is likely to see him go off favourite though he did manage to get beaten at short odds last time and he faces stiff competition for the lead today. Knockgraffon is another with decent form and his 2nd the last day was probably quite a decent effort given he conceded plenty of weight to the winner. Connections were quick to point out this race as a target so a big run looks on the cards. Overtown Express bolted up over trip and track last time and wouldn’t mind if it turned soft, likely to be suited by an honest gallop he looks almost certain to run a nice race and is afforded the vote to run them down late on. Two Taffs gets much further than this and is often ridden handily, any messing around up front is unlikely to be tolerated by his pilot but it would be slightly disappointing if he had the pace. Flying Angel is surely here as a confidence booster having failed to complete on his last two runs, there will likely be later targets for him but he’s well worth bearing in mind going forwards. Overtown Express (WIN)

15:00 Newbury Anything other than a win for current Arkle favourite Altior would be a major upset, unbeaten so far over fences this probably rates as his biggest test but his form over hurdles was impressive and he does promise to be even better as a chaser. Dodging Bullets won the 2015 Queen Mother but has rarely shown that level of form since, he could run a nice race but the feeling is he isn’t the force of old. Fox Norton looks the realistic challenger should Altior falter but despite looking highly promising he faces an uphill task at the weights. Traffic Fluide is promising but he’s clearly had his problems and has been off for over a year, he could be interesting later in the season but this revolves around Altior and anything other than a win for him would be a shock. Altior (WIN)

15:15 Warwick Another appalling numerical turnout on see’s Vibrato Valtat getting the vote rather by default, default being hardly anything capable of beating him formwise has turned up. A repeat of his second behind Vaniteux at Kempton over this trip the last day would probably be enough though he is quite capable of throwing victory away from any position. Activial has been quite lightly raced but has never convinced over fences and fell early on last time, on his hurdles form he would have every chance but these fences want jumping and he’s questions to answer on that score. Templehills is another with jumping issues and he’s fallen in two of his last three. The one time he didn’t fall he managed to survive a terrible blunder though he did look quite good that day, should he manage to navigate a way around he could challenge but his style is all or nothing and the trend suggests nothing rather than all. On Tour and No Buts couldn’t be entirely discounted but neither have shown much lately in what is best described as a forgetful race. Vibrato Valtat (WIN)

15:35 Newbury The curtain closer to a rather disappointing day numbers wise see’s a large field handicap hurdle and a chance will be taken away on outsider Boite. Fairly useful on the level he has so far proved decent over hurdles and looks to have a nice pot in him. Quietly backed last time he appeared to be travelling nicely before his stamina gave way and todays drop in trip looks a major positive. With first time headgear enlisted today and with a 7lbs claimer on top he looks to be a massive price and is taken to bounce back and into the places at good odds. William H Bonney went into many a notebook when looking a little unlucky in the run at Kempton two starts back and duly obliged in decent fashion at Cheltenham last time. The handicappers 5lbs penalty for that success doesn’t looks overly harsh and a decent run looks on the cards. Ballyandy probably bumped into a nice one the last day and is entitled to go close with his stable going well, tough and consistent he deserves to be favourite and is respected as having a favourites chance. Clyne has been highly progressive and could regain the winning thread if the handicapper hasn’t caught up with him, like Movewiththetimes he looks a big player and is open to improvement. Wait For Me and De Name Escapes Me are others to monitor in the betting and Gassin Golf is often overpriced in these and wants respecting. Boite (E/W) – NAP

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