15:05 Ffos Las
We start the first of todays three best bets in Wales as we take a selection from three separate countries.
The card at Ffos Las includes a class four handicap chase where I feel top weight Seranwen may be over priced. The race looks very open but that’s probably due to the poor nature of the contest. A return to a venue where he’s won at previously is a big plus and the fact the ground was very heavy on its last two starts means they can both be excused. The yard have hit a bit of form and the drier surface will aid its chances of getting into the mix today.
Of the remaining runners course and distance winner Matrow’s Lady has to be respected but may have had quite a tough campaign and Merchant Of Milan shows that if its upward curve continues it could threaten but never the less I’m hoping the Twiston-Davies family can scoop a win here.
From Wales to Ireland where the first top class flat, turf card awaits at The Curragh. A very open sprint handicap is in the offing here where one of the lower weights Deeds Not Words catches the eye. Trainer JF Levins has his horses in top form with a 50% strike rate over the past fortnight. Top jockey Leigh Roche is booked for the ride and the five year old sits two pounds lower than its last winning mark in which it came in a turf contest. The horse has put in reasonable efforts on the artificial surface at Dundalk and should strip fitter than many of his rivals here. Obviously the likes of Katimavik and Laganore head the betting considering the stables they represent as well as having what will be a slightly favourable low draw to boot.
However Deeds Not Words has room for improvement and a horse that has finished in the top three in ten of its races on turf has to be respected, especially when the current double figure price is available.
Deeds Not Words (E/W)
We started in Wales, went to Ireland and now finish off in England with Carlisle’s national hunt card. As with todays earlier selections a bit of value looks to be on offer in the form of course winner Settledoutofcourt. The Lucinda Russell trained ten year old is one of the youngest horses entered and comes into the race on the back of a respectable enough fifth placed finish. The horses last victory came in a Class 3 contest and todays race sees the horse drop into Class 4 company. A return to the venue where it last picked up a success is a positive, as is the trainers current 27% strike rate. It looks a tougher task, especially considering its current official rating but this relatively lightly raced veteran is pretty consistent and if found on a going day has enough to trouble the main protagonists especially considering its lower burden.
Mr Moonshine is the current favourite and has to be respected but the horse is so inconsistent that I’m highly dubious about the thought of the horse winning two on the bounce.
Top weight Firth Of The Clyde will run a decent race but seems to have an almighty weight to carry so I’d probably point out both Barafundle and Howard’s Legacy as the likelier dangers to my selection, I just hope I’ve gone with the right outsider.