All eyes will be on Oaks hopeful Minding when she tackles a thirteen strong field. on betting value at 2/5 I would be insulting readers even putting it forward as a bet, so lets look for some value. I was very taken with Now or Never’s win in the 1000gns trial at Leopardstown two weeks ago, it is good to see Kieran Falllon back from the outback American tracks to get another ride in a classic, can he win, reality no. She carries a 6lb penalty and has been held by Jet Setting this year at Leopardstown.
One at a price and will be the each way selection is Jim Bolger’s TURRET ROCKS, she looked to have a lot of potential as a juvenile when landing the Group 2 May Hill Stakes, before going on to finish runner up to Ballydoyle in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac.
She is comfortably held by Minding on their seasons re-appearance in the 1000 guineas at Newmarket, but she deserves to come on for that run, she did not have the kindest of races when bumped and hampered several times in the race, I think she will be a lot closer this time around and can chance the fav home.
TURRET ROCKS (E/W)
This looks a very open Novices contest, Tom Dascombe’s Decadent Times looks to be one of those horses that probably shows potential at home and nothing on the course, I would like to think differently, even though he is now looking very exposed he should now be using his experience to win a race of this nature.
What goes in his favour is the fact he has finished behind potentially some smart juveniles in Sutter County who has gone on to win again, Stormy Clouds who was disappointing recently in the Listed Marygate Fillies Stakes, but has won two of his career starts and Orewa who has also franked the form. His run last time was once more behind an improver for Godolphin in Kananee who has gone on to win again.
So I suppose I would be foolish to not stay loyal to him, with him potentially looking exposed there should be none of this evens, I would expect a good bit of value now for him around 6/1 and drops back in Novice company which saw him finis second twice this year. Of the new comers Ishmail Mohammed stable has been running well mainly on the all weather and is 0-11 in 2016 with his turf applicants.
The trainer last year did not have a bad record here at Nottingham, with a return 2-11 and a 18% strike rate with a +8 return he can be feared, his representative here is , a 55,000 purchase as a yearling and is related to a Listed winner, what does put you off is the trainer record with juveniles 2-70 this would discount him on debut.
Godolphin have a nice sprinting pedigree making his debut in Silver Line, by Dark Angel out of juvenile maiden winner Admire the View who went on at three to record two more wins around the 0-70 and 0-85 handicap sphere. Potentially being from a speedy family from index’s from the optimum to 7f I would be more interested in backing him here on debut, but I am not, as I have always felt Dark Angel progenies come on for a run, but never less should go close.
The selection comes from the Richard Hannon stable, purely on the grounds that Pat Dobbs has travelled for the ride and is his only mount of the day. JUAN HORSEPOWER ran a solid runners up spot behind Erica Bing at Bath eleven days ago, even though he looked well held, he showed a good attitude to run all the way to the line. Potentially a 6f horse I think, being sired by winning sprinter Foxwedge who won twice over 6f in his career which included the Group 1 William Reid Stakes in Australia. Patt Dobbs is riding a good season already with ten winners on board from the averaging sixty winners a year jockey.
JUAN HORSEPOWER (WIN)
Ballydoyle have 57% of the entries here with on paper Beacon Rock being the most interesting entries and is chosen by Ryan Moore. His best run as a juvenile came in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes when behind Port Douglas, that form this year has been rock solid with the winner just being denied in the Chester Vase behind Derby hopeful US Army Ranger. But he has struggled to bring that form back to the table when a long way off Harzand in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes. You could probably make excuses for the run in the bottomless conditions.
His second and most recent was more encouraging when only a length and a quarter behind Moonlight Magic in the Group 3 Derby trial stakes at Leopardstown two weeks ago, I would like to say that he has not had his ground yet and would probably want it a bit firmer, but he does have an amazing pedigree by Galilleo and being full brother to Group 2 winner Wedding Vow, the dam Remember When was runner up in the Oaks with having relations through Dylan Thomas and Homecoming Queen, so still potentially a lot more to come from him.
Landofhopeandglory looks a frustrating type, after a maiden win at Galway as a juvenile he went on to finish runner up on three occasions which included behind Glamour Approach who has not come on in transition. With two fourths this year behind Linquistic and Humphrey Bogart I do feel there is flaws in that form and will over look him this time around.
The one that could surprise is HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT, I put him forward last time when he ran a close third in the Dee Stakes when behind surprise winner Viren’s Army of Richard Hannon’s. Linquistic was a close second that day and pending on how he comes on on Saturday well see how strong that form is. He also handed out a defeat to Flying Bullet in a maiden at Dundalk by five lengths and I would be extremely surprised to see that form reversed.
He cost 120,000 as a yearling, and is half sister to 10f winning mare Oriental Girl and Hungarian, Watching the Dee Stakes he was in front near the line to be run out of the race in the final yards, this is a dead 10f and not the extra 75y as the Dee Stakes had.I feel we will see a big run for him this afternoon and is the choice of Seamus again.
Dermot Weld is also well represented in this with Flying Bullet and one that I feel is very underestimated in Foxtrot Charlie, he is unknown quality and with only the one career run which was a win in maiden company at Killarney as a juvenile, it is a warm order to come on and win this not having the experience. He is well related to eight subsequent winners, but Weld’s second strings have had a torrid time and more sway goes to Flying Bullet who gave the Housesofparliament form a boost when winning his maiden at Naas ten days ago, the race could come too quick for him I feel.
Beacon Rock is probably the best of the entries from Ballydoyle on paper, but I will stick with Housesofparliament again, and would not be surprised to see Flying Bullet and Beacon Rock on the premises.
I actually feel this is the best race on the card, it has attracted a very strong field and looks a real hard renewal. Over the past three years this has been dominated by jockey James Doyle, sadly no participation this afternoon, this should really be staying with Ballydoyle who won this race on three consecutive years from 2010-12.
Found is their sole entry here and she looked back to her best when finding a through gap to run on strongly and score in the Group 3 Moorebridge Stakes. The way she finished off her race was the Found that we have not seen for a long time, she actually went through with her run instead coming into a race strongly to find nothing off the bridle. She is 5/6 and will make a lot of appeal for the doubles with Minding over the course of the day.
Two British entries comes from stablesKevin Ryan and Roger Charlton, The Grey Gatsby has ran only the once at The Curragh when finishing fourth to Al Kazeem in this last year. He has just under two lengths to find with Fascinating Rocks who was very disappointing behind Found in the Moorebridge. He had already beaten Found last year at the royal meeting in the Champions Stakes, but looking at the two runs this year
I cannot see that form holding and expect Minding to beat him again and easily, so for The Grey Gatsby who can go well fresh looks up against it, but this has been won over the past three years by British trainers. Roger Charlton has won two of the past three renewals which included last year with Al Kazeem, his asking this year that Time Test can make it another win.
Now I am a big fan of Time Test as I was last year when he won the Group 2 Shadwell Joel Stakes when beating Custom Cut by one length, that form has gone terribly wrong, and with Time Test running in Keenland in the Breeders Cup Mile when behind Tepin who is Royal Ascot bound after landing the Distaff at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby night last weekend, but realistically Roger would of have had improved him 8lb if we are to think he can beat Found in this.
Even though The Great Gatsby has to step up on his fourth in this last year, I think he will come on for the run, but mostly he goes well fresh, he should be reversing the form with Fascinating Rock this time around on what evidence the latter showed last time. Jamie Spencer is having a good season by his standards as is Frankie Dettori who rides Time Test, another I am wanting to dismiss but struggling to do so purely on the basis that Frankie is riding winners constantly and that the trainer has won this twice in the past three years, they are both backable at the prices and I will dutch them for a return against the favourite each way.
THE GREAT GATSBY (E/W if 9/2+)
TIME TEST (E/W)