PADDOCKS PATENT (TUESDAY)

12:20 Southwell Scott Dixon doesn’t have the best strike rate when it comes to winners but his level stakes profit record of +£48.65 to a £1 stake over the last three years at Southwell means his runners are always worth a second look. Preference of his two runners here is for Sir Geoffrey who won on his last two visits to Southwell, both over todays’ trip. The latest of these came off a mark of 61 in a class 5 and he runs today off 58 in a class 6, with jockey Natalie Hambling claiming a further 7lbs. Admittedly his recent form hasn’t been anything to shout about but most recent runs have been on turf and off an attractive mark returning to Southwell it is hoped he can get back to winning ways. Fortinbrass is the early favourite and looks to be the biggest danger to Sir Geoffrey. He has won three times over course and distance including when last here, but was all out to win by a neck and is still 2lbs higher if taking in to account the jockey’s claim last time out. He will also need to improve on the two recent runs since return from a three month break. Sir Geoffrey (E/W if 9/2+)

12:25 Wexford We swiftly move over to Wexford for our second selection, for a maiden hurdle over two miles with fourteen scheduled to go to post. The early favourite is Toe The Line who makes her hurdles debut following various runs both on the flat and under NH flat rules, winning twice over a two mile trip. She has won at listed level on the flat and races for a yard with a 100% winning strike rate in the last twelve months here at Wexford so warrants plenty of respect. Having said this, I am opting for Forge Meadow who was an impressive bumper winner on debut then ran a cracker to finish third to Augusta Kate at Punchestown when last seen. If reports are to be believed she has been jumping well in preparation for hurdling debut so if transferring this to race conditions she could be tough to beat here. The shortlist is completed by the Willie Mullins’ trained Bargy Lady who is another previous bumper winner making her hurdling debut. Ruby Walsh takes over in the saddle and both trainer and jockey have good records here at Wexford. Forge Meadow (WIN)

15:45 Lingfield Warren Greatrex has only sent six runners over hurdles here in the last three years and has returned five winners for a winning strike rate of 83%. Jockey Gavin Sheehan has a 60% winning strike rate over the same time period and they team up with the favourite Odello in the final race. She was a winner on debut in a NH flat race at Warwick earlier in the month and will likely have been well schooled ahead of her debut over hurdles today. Grace Tara makes her re-appearance after two and a half years off the track but was a winner on soft ground when last seen and also won a point-to-point prior to that so should be comfortable with the forecast conditions. Knightly Pleasure and Flints Legacy deserve a mention but the biggest threat looks likely to come from Martha Mccandles who was a credible third on debut over hurdles last month and hails from the in-form Alan King yard. Odello (WIN)

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