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PADDOCKS PATENT (TUESDAY)

Southwell 13:50 Early favourite Capolavoro was a ready winner at Wolves on Saturday but carries a 6lbs penalty for that two length success, taking him to a career high mark. He also steps up in class today, which could make him vulnerable here today. On the face of it Captain Revelation doesn’t look one to have the utmost of confidence in, having disappointed in his last couple of runs. However he has two wins and three seconds from five runs here at Southwell and has made the frame in half of his runs over a seven furlong trip. Furthermore, his trainer Tom Dascombe has had seven runners at Southwell in the last 12 months, producing three winners and two placed for a 42% win & 71% placed strike rate. In the hope that a return to his favoured track sparks a revival in form I am happy to take each way early odds of 13/2. Most other runners arrive here out of form so perhaps the most likely to challenge looks to be Boots And Spurs who has won twice from three attempts at Southwell and has run two decent races in defeat the last twice. Captain Revelation (E/W if 9/2+)

Fontwell 14:10 A J Honeybell has a 40% winning strike rate in the last three years over fences here at Fontwell and relies on Royal Native to attempt to continue that record here today. The 8 year old hasn’t been seen since February but has a good record when running fresh, has made the frame in all four attempts at the course (winning one) and has dropped to his last winning mark. Furthermore, jockey David Noonan claims a further 3lbs which makes me think we could be looking at a big run here. Pete The Feat notched up a five-timer in 2012 but has since only managed one further victory which came in 2013. He finished second in this race last year, is 3lbs lower for todays’ race and has Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle, a jockey with a great record here at Fontwell, so looks to be the main danger. Adam Du Breteau has won two of his last four but was well-held off his new mark at Ludlow last time out, while Leo Luna has won two from three here at Fontwell but disappointed on return last month so the most likely winner looks to be found within the two market principles, with preference for Royal Native. Royal Native (WIN)

Southwell 15:20 Sir Geoffrey won this race in 2013 and has a 25% winning strike rate over course and distance. He disappointed last time out at Wolves over six furlongs but wasn’t too far away over todays’ trip on his previous two runs at Newcastle and has dropped 6lbs below his last winning mark. A winner on his last two visits to Southwell, a return to the Nottinghamshire track could spark an improvement and early odds of around 10/1 looks to be a bit of value for a multiple course and distance winner. If the selection fails to fire then the biggest danger could be Excellent Aim, who’s last win came in this race last year and he races off the same mark today. He has made the frame in all three previous runs over course and distance, although it is worth noting he has only won one in sixteen over the minimum trip. Of the remainder, Pancake Day has a decent record here at Southwell and Oscars Journey is back down to his last winning mark so both deserve a mention. Sir Geoffrey (E/W)

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