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19:00 Windsor First selection today comes in the fillies handicap at Windsor. Eight are due to go to post and it looks a race set to be battled out by the 3 year olds. As of writing, Inclination heads the market at around 6/4. Clive Cox’s charge has shown sustained improvement over the summer, racking up a hat-trick of victories. Each time the filly has prevailed by a slender margin and is now some 14lbs higher than when her winning spree began. I am of the opinion the handicapper is very close to catching up with her and this is enough to convince me to look elsewhere at the prices. Another 3 year old worthy of note is Bint Aldar from the yard of sprint specialist Robert Cowell. A speedy daughter of Zoffany, Bint Aldar displayed real signs of promise during her 2 year old campaign. An opening 3yo mark of 80 does not look overly burdensome and I expect to see a good run for your money at 7/1. However for win purposes I have decided to pass over due to her 319 day absence from the track – she may just need this. My pick comes in the form of William Haggas’ Symposium. Still relatively unexposed, this filly by Exceed and Excel posted a solid debut season and her connections always expected her to take a step forward this season. Her first run as a 3yo was fair enough given a 200+ day absence and this was then followed up by a respectable third in a competitive handicap at Chester were the ground would have been soft enough. Dropped a pound by the handicapper for that run, a rating of 76 looks exploitable to me. Symposium (WIN)
19:30 Windsor A small field of five for this 3yo handicap and on official ratings only 3lb separate the field. The bookies have priced it tightly accordingly – with joint favourites of three at the time of writing. Chester Street is one of the trio of favourites. The Roger Charlton colt looked of some potential when winning his maiden at Kempton, despite showing signs of greenness. Improvement was expected and I think its fair to say its slightly disappointing that his subsequent three attempts in handicap company have yielded just one finish in the frame. Granted, the handicaps were of a fair standard but it raises a few doubts around the development of Chester Street – particularly with the handicapper failing to relent during this sequence. I am not totally convinced at odds of 5/2. My selection is the only filly in the race – September Stars. This expensive daughter of Sea The Stars looked of a good standard when competing in three maidens and a high quality listed race that is often targeted by Oaks hopefuls. A step down in trip to 1m may raise a few eyebrows but we should remember her encouraging debut was over this trip and her last outing (over just short of 10f) seen her race a tad keenly towards the head of affairs. This is her first foray into handicap company and a mark of 80 certainly looks fair enough to me. September Stars (WIN)
20:00 Windsor Nine hopefuls are down to go to post in this class 4 handicap and my money is on the outsider of the lot! The colt Smaih carried my E/W money in an almost identical event 6 weeks ago – a 1m 2f, class 4 handicap at Windsor on good ground. That day he ran his most encouraging race for some time, staying on nicely to finish a 1-3/4 length 3rd at 16/1 off a mark of 84. After two subsequently disappointing efforts at Newbury and Chelmsford, his mark has dropped a further three pounds to 81. A leap of faith has to be taken but I think his current odds of 16/1 offer a bit of value, particularly with Smaih representing Timmy Murphy’s only ride of the night. In that same race at Windsor last month was Prendergast Hill. This 4yo gelding finished 2nd – a neck in front of Smaih, whom he re-opposes here on 5lb worse terms. However, whereas Smaih has gone on to disappoint in subsequent outings, Prendergast Hill has notched a course and distance win – beating Rotherwick in the process. It seems good, quick ground at Windsor is right to Prendergast Hill’s liking and another solid run should be forthcoming. Smaih (E/W)
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