PADDOCKS PATENT (MONDAY)

14:50 Kempton The first selection of the day comes in this class four handicap over seven furlongs, where Holiday Magic arrives here looking to complete a hat-trick of wins. The Charlie Appleby trained three year old has won on his two previous visits to Kempton and keeps the partnership with jockey William Buick, who was in the saddle for both aforementioned wins. Although dropping back in trip for today’s race, he showed he has enough speed to be competitive over seven furlongs and looks to be progressing nicely. Good Luck Charm looks to be the biggest danger, having finished in the top three in 50% of his races on an all-weather surface. All three of his career wins have come over today’s race distance, although he has only managed one win from seven here at Kempton. Angel Flores is another to consider here, a three year old filly who has shown good form on an all-weather surface with a win and a second from two runs at Wolves. She is overlooked today as her only previous attempt over today’s trip saw her weaken inside the final furlong and finish six lengths behind the winner. Holiday Magic (WIN)

15:00 Carlisle This class two chase looks to be a fascinating race despite there only being five runners. Last years’ winner Vintage Star returns to defend his crown having won this race on his seasonal re-appearance last year and, arriving here on the back of a similar break and with ground conditions in his favour he looks likely to go close again today. His main rival looks to be Shutthefrontdoor, who was last seen in April winning the Irish Grand National and is another who has previously won on his first run of the season. A course and distance winner over hurdles, he is also proven on soft/heavy ground and should be capable of winning this on his way to bigger and better things this season. Mickie could also enter the frame and with two wins from three over today’s trip she needs to be respected, although this will be her first attempt over fences. Shutthefrontdoor (WIN)

16:20 Kempton Nigel’s Destiny is the forecast favourite and benefitted from front running tactics last time out, leading from start to finish to hold off a couple of late challengers over seven furlongs. He has attempted today’s trip prior to this win but could only finish fifth and although he seems to be progressing well there is no guarantee that he will get the trip today. Semaral has finished in the top three positions in four of his last five races including a win over course and distance win last month, while Barnmore and Set The Trend are both multiple course and distance winners so also need to be respected. In a tough looking race, preference is for Toga Tiger. He has a 35% win rate on all-weather surfaces and returned from a three month break to beat Siouxperhero at Wolves last month. This was his first win since notching up a hat-trick in early 2013 but these three wins came on the back of a similar absence and at likely odds of around 10/1 he looks to be a decent each way bet. Toga Tiger (E/W)