15:20 Ayr

Anastarsia has some nice breeding, being a half sister to Global Giant and having two Arc winners in her pedigree. She was last seen 7th in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, behind subsequent Oaks third Frankly Darling and a whole host of nice fillies. She had no chance of winning the race before, when she slipped around the bend coming into the home straight. Although she has some good form, she’s coming off the back of a layoff and may find this race too hot.

Arriviste was 5th in her reappearance race, which included many of these, and connections are in quite good form. She has some useful form from France last year, notably finishing 4th behind Arc 5th and leading Group 1 hope Raabihah. Moreover, she has the highest speed figure of any in this race. She probably needed the run last time out and could be the one to trouble the favourite.

I tried to look for a bit of value in this race, but everything points towards the favourite, Black Lotus. Reinforced by the fact the favourite has won three out of four renewals of this race. She was improving throughout last year and wasn’t disgraced when ahead of a few of these, on level weights, at Nottingham. She’s very well in on the weights with some of the leading contenders and arguably her best form came when running over this distance. Taken together, she seems the one to beat in this race.


written by Kieran McHugh

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