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17:30 Cheltenham – Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Just like records both trends and statistics are there to be broken and defied but when analysing a race of this nature it’s always worth a quick glance over past victors to see if there’s anything that can help us narrow down the field.
Horses who’s not won this season, horses rated over 137 or more and horses in headgear all have good records in the race and current market leader Frontal Assault ticks all three of the aforementioned criteria. To some it’s perhaps a daft idea siding with the market principle in such a large field but my Great Grandad (a die-hard racing fan and punter) used to profess ‘The bigger the field the bigger the favourite’. Although I wouldn’t live or die by such a phrase I’m hoping it can be applied here. He’s drifted a little in the market and if anyone can get 5/1 or bigger he looks sure to finish in contention especially if bookies are being generous enough to offer six or even seven places.
If you’re looking for horses with festival form then despite never claiming a course victory Janika is the one to side with at a massive price. He’s contested big runner fields here at Prestbury Park twice before and finished second of 22 in the 2019 Brown Advisory and fifth of 26 in last years Coral Cup. He has another big field to contend with which should be to his liking and now sits on a very attractive mark. Young jockey Ben Bromley takes more weight off the horses back and the young rider seems to be some talent with 10 winning rides from 54 starts this season. The nine year old is far from prolific but looking solely at his chase career he’s finished in the top two in 9 of his 15 chase starts which isn’t too shabby. He’ll need luck in running as will any horse in such a large field but he’s far too attractively priced not to have a little nibble at big odds.
Irish raiders School Boy Hours, Mister Fogpatches and Aint That A Shame look likely to go well and the booking of jockey William Biddick is eye catching for Tom George’s Come On Teddy who’s claimed a previous course win and could go well at a price.
written by Rory Paddock