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16:25 LISTOWEL - KERRY NATIONAL
With eighteen runners set to go to post for this year’s Kerry Grand National it’s sometimes worth while looking for that extra edge and stats can at times provide a very big clue to pinpointing a victor. Such statistics can show themselves as trends and with such an illustrious handicap there’s plenty to look out for.
I’ve pinpointed four trends that have proved close to infallible over the past twenty years and I’m hoping they can provide another solid guide.
- All 20 of the last 20 winners had less than 3 chase falls.
- 19 of the last 20 winners have raced within the last 48 days.
- 19 of the last 20 winners were aged between 6 and 9 years old.
- 19 of the last 20 winners finished 8th or better in their last race.
Using these four trends it’s taken the field of 18 (Plus 3 reserves) and narrowed it all the way down to a trio of horses that tick all four of the boxes outlined above.
Conflated, Fairyhill Run and Karl Der Grosse are the three that fall under each of these trends and according to the bookmakers they are far from a forlorn hope.
Conflated is the market leader and current favourite who should have a fitness edge over most of his rivals having raced on the flat three weeks ago. A novice chaser who has plenty of room left to progress and has finished in the top three in five of his six chase starts. He’s competed in Grade 1 level without success however did claim a Grade 3 at Naas earlier in the year. Clearly connections hold him in high regard after sending him to Gowran to dust off the cobwebs but without a run over obstacles since April I can’t side with him at such short odds.
Despite the aforementioned favourite’s obvious claims he has another three stable mates set to line up and despite not meeting all of the criteria set out in the trends Aramax is a horse I feel could make out to be a top class chaser. In all honesty I’m a tad shocked to see him running in a race of this nature however this former Cheltenham Festival winner has a touch of class. After a solid third at the Galway Festival earlier in the summer I expect him to improve upon that effort and I hope his class can shine through.
I did mention two other horses earlier that met the quartet of trends however both are still down as reserves. That being said I’m not going to let it put me off siding with Fairyhill Run. The six year old mare has won her last three starts and has been aimed at this race for a while. Trainer John Patrick Ryan’s got his horses in red hot form and his yard are operating at a 31% strike rate recently. Although it’s not a guarantee she’s going to get into the final field she’s worth backing and shouldn’t be far out of the money.
ARAMAX (E/W)
FAIRYHILL RUN (E/W)
written by Rory Paddock